Money multiplier under Basel capital ratio regulation: implications for counter-COVID-19 stimulus

The COVID-19 induced the central bankers to search the most efficient stimulus measures. As a solution, they made an unprecedented step. They lifted down the reserve requirement (RR) to zero. This was done in the United States [FRS. 2020. "Federal Reserve Actions to Support the Flow of Credit to Households and Businesses.” Accessed February 10, 2021. Board of the Governors of the Federal Reserve System] and Morocco [BKAM. 2020. "Monetary Policy Report No. 55.” Accessed from Central Bank of Morocco Website]. The existing monetary theory literature suggests that the broad money supply should go to infinity as a result. Then we may expect the rapid economic recovery. However, this may not come true. The novelty of this paper is the development of the money multiplier theory. We explain why a step to set the RR at zero may boost (though slight) the cash-intensive economy (like Morocco) and may not deliver any benefit to a mostly cashless one (like the US, Canada, or the EU). © 2021 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

Agent-based modeling for benchmarking banking regulation regimes: Application for the CBDC

COVID-19 pandemic challenges the sustainability of the modern financial system. International central bankers claim that banks are solid. They have accumulated significant capital buffers. Those buffers should be further more augmented by 2027 in line with Basel III reforms. However, disregarding such a consecutive rise in the banking capital adequacy requirements, the US financial authorities undertook an unprecedented step. First time in the country history they lowered the reserve requirement to zero at the end of March 2020. Friedrich von Hayek demonstrated the fragility of the modern fractional reserve banking systems. Together with Ludwig von Mises (von Mises, 1978) he was thus able to predict the Great Depression of 1929 and explain its mechanics much in advance. Thus, we wish to utilize the agent-based modeling technique to extend von Hayek's rationale to the previously unstudied interaction of capital adequacy and reserve requirement regulation. We find that the full reserve requirement regime even without capital adequacy regulation provides more stable financial environment than the existing one. Rise in capital adequacy adds to modern banking sustainability, but it still preserves the system remarkably fragile compared to the full reserve requirement. We also prove that capital adequacy regulation is redundant when the latter environment is in place. We discuss our findings application to the potential Central Bank Digital Currencies regulation. © 2021-IOS Press. All rights reserved.